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SimpleFunctions aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket into a single live feed — the Ukraine War index at /predictions/ukraine bundles every related contract with current price, 24h volume, and cross-venue gaps.

May 9, 2026·Ukraine War·Older · 2w ago

Ukraine-Russia Ceasefire Shock: Probability Skyrockets from 4¢ to 100¢

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

A surprise breakthrough in peace talks drove the 'ceasefire by May 31' contract from near-zero to certainty, making it the day's single biggest mover. Traders who held 'No' contracts saw a complete loss, while 'Yes' holders gained massive returns.

Key takeaways

01
A surprise breakthrough in peace talks drove the 'ceasefire by May 31' contract from near-zero to certainty, making it the day's single biggest mover.
02
Traders who held 'No' contracts saw a complete loss, while 'Yes' holders gained massive returns.
03
The prediction market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 (P | 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e) experienced an extraordinary rally from 4¢ to 100¢, a 96¢ move in a single day.

Full analysis

The prediction market for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026 (P | 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e) experienced an extraordinary rally from 4¢ to 100¢, a 96¢ move in a single day. This was fueled by confirmation that both sides had agreed to a framework for ending hostilities, with a formal signing expected within days. The volume on this contract exceeded 3.4 million contracts, the second highest of any market today. The related 'ceasefire by June 30' contract (P | 0xe546672750517f62c4) also hit 100¢, up 93¢. Traders should monitor the 'Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027' contract (P | 0x4167e22670f31e5f93) which is still only 28¢, suggesting further upside if a full peace treaty follows. The swift move caught many by surprise; those who had shorted the ceasefire probabilities faced significant losses. The development also impacted broader geopolitical markets: the 'Starmer out by June 30' contract (P | 0xbee2cd40473495f713) dropped 30¢ as the UK PM's domestic standing improved, and gold (GLD) edged up 0.5% as a safe haven. Oil prices (USO) fell 2.51% as the perceived supply risk diminished. For traders, the key watchpoint is now the 'Ukraine officially agrees to a US-backed ceasefire framework by June 30' (P | 0xadb3dda930d411bdab) at 21¢ (up 13¢) – a potential multi-bagger if the trend continues.