SimpleFunctions
kalshiYield curve188 markets

Will I Know Too Much by Ellie Goulding have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week

event base · KXALBUMEQUIV

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$8.8K
Constituents
188
Distinct tenors
8
3w – 11w
Avg P(YES)
40.5%

Term structure

YES probability across 8 tenors

25%50%75%3w5w7w9w11w
τ days →P(YES) on left axis

Analysis

The yield curve displays a pronounced inverted structure, with the shortest tenor (18 days) commanding the highest YES probabilities and progressively lower probabilities extending into longer tenors. At 18 days, the PRI series shows robust probabilities ranging from 97% at the 5K strike down to 38% at the 40K strike, while the THE series peaks at 50% (20K strike). By contrast, the 25-day tenor (DIS and OW series) shows a dramatic compression, with probabilities collapsing to single digits at higher strikes (1-2% at 12K-15K levels). The 32-day tenor (ANG, DAY, EST, PIC, PYL series) exhibits moderate probabilities, with the PYL series reaching 88% at 10K but declining to 71% at 15K. The cheapest YES probability across all tenors appears at the 25-day bucket, where DIS and OW markets price just 1-2% probability at the 15K strike level. This inverted curve structure signals that the market expects the event outcome to resolve decisively within the immediate 18-day window, with extreme uncertainty or low probability of occurrence in the intermediate 25-day period, followed by modest recovery in the 32-day tenor. The sharp cliff between 18 and 25 days suggests a critical decision point or catalyst is anticipated imminently, after which the event becomes either highly unlikely or the market's conviction collapses entirely. The subsequent stabilization at 32 days indicates some residual tail-risk pricing, but the overall pattern reflects high confidence in near-term resolution rather than a gradual probability decay typical of normal yield curves. The market is essentially pricing a binary outcome concentrated in

Generated 8/26/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

188 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K9w99.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 1000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 1K8w98.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K3w97.0%$0
Will Popstar by Tinashe have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K6w97.0%$0
Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K9w97.0%$19
Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K9w97.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K3w96.0%$6
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K8w95.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K3w93.0%$345
Will Pylon by beabadoobee have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K5w93.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K3w92.0%$561
Will Silver Sands Marina by Kenny Chesney have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K6w91.0%$0
Will Ow by Sylvan Esso have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K4w90.0%$0
Will Ride Lonesome by Beck have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K5w90.0%$0
Will Frequency Of Love by Victoria Monét have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K7w90.0%$0
Will Popstar by Tinashe have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K6w89.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 4000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 4K8w89.0%$106
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K8w89.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 3000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 3K8w87.0%$106
Will Signs by Luke Bryan have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K5w86.0%$0
Will She’s The Best by Troye Sivan have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K8w86.0%$224
Will The Age Of Everything by Johnny Marr have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K7w85.0%$0
Will The Shel Talmy Recordings by David Bowie have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K5w84.0%$0
Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K6w84.0%$416
Will Pylon by beabadoobee have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K5w83.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 6000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 6K8w82.0%$0
Will Day and Night by Carly Rae Jepsen have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K5w81.0%$0
Will ESTRUS by Tove Lo have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K5w81.0%$0
Will No Bad Memories by The Avalanches have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K9w81.0%$0
Will Frequency Of Love by Victoria Monét have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K7w80.0%$0
Will Pick You Up by Sheryl Crow have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K8w80.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 25K3w79.0%$397
Will Angel by Lizzy McAlpine have above Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K5w79.0%$0
Will Cookie Happened by Eels have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K9w79.0%$0
Will Pylon by beabadoobee have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K5w78.0%$201
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K11w78.0%$0
Will Day and Night by Carly Rae Jepsen have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K5w77.0%$0
Will Distance in Static by Bonobo have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K4w76.0%$0
Will Silver Sands Marina by Kenny Chesney have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K6w75.0%$101
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K11w72.0%$0
Will Silver Sands Marina by Kenny Chesney have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K6w71.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K3w70.0%$274
Will Palace For The People by Greta Van Fleet have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K8w70.0%$0
Will Frequency Of Love by Victoria Monét have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K7w68.0%$0
Will She’s The Best by Troye Sivan have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K8w68.0%$0
Will Pylon by beabadoobee have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K5w67.0%$200
Will Ride Lonesome by Beck have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K5w64.0%$0
Will Pick You Up by Sheryl Crow have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K8w64.0%$0
Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K6w63.0%$15
Will No Bad Memories by The Avalanches have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K9w63.0%$0
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 25K11w63.0%$0
Will Popstar by Tinashe have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week: Above 7K6w62.0%$57
Will Forever by The Big Moon have above 2000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 2K11w62.0%$752
Will Tough Love by Nessa Barrett have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K6w59.0%$0
Will She’s The Best by Troye Sivan have above 25000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 25K8w58.0%$0
Will Palace For The People by Greta Van Fleet have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K8w57.0%$0
Will Pylon by beabadoobee have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K5w55.0%$425
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K8w55.0%$8
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 9000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 9K8w55.0%$0
Will Everything Under The Sun by Nickelback have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 30, 2026 - November 05, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K11w54.0%$0
Will ESTRUS by Tove Lo have above 7000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 7K5w53.0%$5
Will The Age Of Everything by Johnny Marr have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K7w53.0%$0
Will Signs by Luke Bryan have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K5w52.0%$0
Will Frequency Of Love by Victoria Monét have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 02, 2026 - October 08, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K7w52.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K8w52.0%$0
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 35000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 35K3w51.0%$104
Will Day and Night by Carly Rae Jepsen have above 15000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 15K5w51.0%$0
Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K6w51.0%$0
Will Popstar by Tinashe have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K6w51.0%$0
Will The Phase by MONSTA X have above 20000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K3w50.0%$0
Will Ride Lonesome by Beck have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K5w50.0%$0
Will Mud by Remi Wolf have above 8000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 9, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 8K8w50.0%$0
Will I Know Too Much by Ellie Goulding have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K3w49.0%$0
Will Angel by Lizzy McAlpine have above Album Equivalent Units during the September 18, 2026 - September 24, 2026 tracking week?: Above 20K5w48.0%$9
Will She’s The Best by Troye Sivan have above 30000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 09, 2026 - October 15, 2026 tracking week?: Above 30K8w48.0%$0
Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 12000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 12K9w48.0%$619
Will PRIMA by ADÉLA have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 04, 2026 - September 10, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K3w47.0%$400
Will Dopamine Chamber by Fontaines D.C. have above 10000 Album Equivalent Units during the October 16, 2026 - October 22, 2026 tracking week?: Above 10K9w47.0%$716
Will I’m So Happy by Ms. Rachel have above 40000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 25, 2026 - October 01, 2026 tracking week?: Above 40K6w46.0%$0
Will Distance in Static by Bonobo have above 5000 Album Equivalent Units during the September 11, 2026 - September 17, 2026 tracking week?: Above 5K4w45.0%$18
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 188 constituents.

Browse this series

Artist Album-Equivalent-Units Forecast Markets
Collection view — every live contract in this series, sorted by 24h volume. Distinct intent from this term-structure page.

How to read this page

A term structure plots the implied YES probability of each constituent market against its days-to-resolution. Steepening upward = the market prices the event as becoming more likely with time. Flat = stable expectations. Inverted = a near-term catalyst raises odds early then they fade.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXALBUMEQUIV on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Wed, 26 Aug 2026 06:21:16 GMT.