KXBTCD

318 constituent markets · kalshi

Curve

τ days →P(YES)

Analysis

# Prediction Market Analysis: KXBTCD The yield curve displays a dramatic inverted structure with a sharp cliff formation. At tau=0d (same-day resolution), YES probabilities remain elevated at 99% across the entire lower strike range, then collapse precipitously around the T70799.99 strike (73%), before falling to just 1-2% at T71099.99 and remaining near 1% through the tail. The 1d tenor (tau=1d) shows a similar but more gradual decline, starting at 99% for lower strikes and declining to 38% at T71249.99, then tapering to 1-3% in the tail. The 5d tenor (tau=5d) exhibits the flattest profile, with probabilities declining from 98% at lower strikes to around 50% at T70999.99, then gradually descending to 1-4% in the far tail. The cheapest YES probability appears in the 5d bucket at the highest strikes (T83499.99 at 3%), though the most liquid concentration of low probabilities occurs in the 0d tenor around T71099.99-T71299.99 at 1-2%. This inverted, cliff-like structure reveals a market heavily concentrated on an imminent outcome within a narrow strike band. The market is pricing in a high-probability event occurring at or near the T70799.99 level (approximately 7,080 on the underlying), with conviction that this outcome happens imminently (0d to 1d). The steep probability decay across strikes—from 99% to 1% over just 300 points—indicates tight consensus around a specific price target rather than distributed uncertainty. The flattening at 5d suggests that if the event does not resolve immediately, the market expects either

Generated 4/13/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

Tickerτ (d)P(YES)Vol 24h
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T61499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T61749.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T61999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T62249.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T62499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T62749.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T62999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T63249.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T63499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T63749.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T63999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T64249.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T64499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T64749.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T64999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T65249.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T65499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T65749.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T65999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T66249.99099.0%$564
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T66499.99099.0%$621
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T66749.99099.0%$648
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T66999.99098.0%$2,679
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T67249.99098.0%$1,197
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T67499.99098.0%$2,322
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T67749.99098.0%$1,822
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T67999.99097.0%$3,826
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T68249.99097.0%$3,230
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T68499.99096.0%$13,231
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T68749.99096.0%$7,620
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T68999.99096.0%$36,554
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T69249.99095.0%$4,369
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T69499.99091.0%$18,058
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T69749.99089.0%$9,463
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T69999.99084.0%$28,437
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T70249.99078.0%$10,398
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T70499.99071.0%$25,498
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T70749.99061.0%$24,264
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T70999.99049.0%$60,724
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T71249.99038.0%$38,402
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T71499.99029.0%$24,561
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T71749.99021.0%$26,747
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T71999.99014.0%$28,857
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T72249.99010.0%$9,016
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T72499.9906.0%$10,573
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T72749.9904.0%$14,998
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T72999.9903.0%$17,400
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T73249.9901.0%$4,403
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T73499.9902.0%$5,464
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T73749.9903.0%$1,210
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T73999.9903.0%$1,916
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T74249.9902.0%$5,412
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T74499.9902.0%$1,969
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T74749.9903.0%$637
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T74999.9902.0%$483
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T75249.9901.0%$82
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T75499.9901.0%$11
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T75749.9902.0%$668
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T75999.9902.0%$60
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T76249.9901.0%$89
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T76499.9903.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T76749.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T76999.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T77249.9901.0%$261
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T77499.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T77749.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T77999.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T78249.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T78499.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T78749.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T78999.9901.0%$52
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T79249.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T79499.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T79749.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T79999.9901.0%$94
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T80249.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T80499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T80749.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T80999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1317-T81249.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T62999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T63999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T64999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T65999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T66999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T67999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68899.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T68999.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69099.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69199.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69299.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69399.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69499.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69599.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69699.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69799.99099.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69899.99099.0%$66
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T69999.99099.0%$533
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70099.99099.0%$291
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70199.99098.0%$269
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70299.99098.0%$3,083
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70399.99096.0%$2,111
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70499.99095.0%$3,671
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70599.99093.0%$3,801
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70699.99089.0%$10,241
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70799.99082.0%$12,132
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70899.99069.0%$34,697
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T70999.99053.0%$76,426
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71099.99036.0%$65,353
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71199.99023.0%$57,629
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71299.99011.0%$28,361
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71399.9905.0%$15,350
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71499.9902.0%$16,467
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71599.9901.0%$9,753
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71699.9901.0%$15,302
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71799.9901.0%$9,204
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71899.9901.0%$3,360
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T71999.9901.0%$3,914
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72099.9901.0%$3,684
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72199.9901.0%$738
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72299.9901.0%$185
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72499.9902.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T72999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T73999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T74999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T75999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T76999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T77999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T78999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79799.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79899.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T79999.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80099.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80199.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80299.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80399.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80499.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80599.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80699.9901.0%$1
KXBTCD-26APR1310-T80799.9901.0%$2
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T58999.99498.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T59499.99498.0%$337
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T59999.99498.0%$48
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T60499.99497.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T60999.99497.0%$48
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T61499.99498.0%$314
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T61999.99497.0%$238
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T62499.99496.0%$429
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T62999.99496.0%$20
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T63499.99496.0%$315
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T63999.99495.0%$348
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T64499.99496.0%$141
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T64999.99494.0%$2,312
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T65499.99493.0%$621
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T65999.99491.0%$2,003
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T66499.99489.0%$4,721
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T66999.99487.0%$2,611
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T67499.99484.0%$3,176
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T67999.99481.0%$1,894
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T68499.99476.0%$4,981
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T68999.99472.0%$3,302
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T69499.99467.0%$4,009
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T69999.99461.0%$12,617
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T70499.99455.0%$6,145
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T70999.99449.0%$29,634
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T71499.99443.0%$13,473
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T71999.99437.0%$16,831
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T72499.99431.0%$7,910
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T72999.99426.0%$6,358
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T73499.99422.0%$2,459
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T73999.99418.0%$6,905
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T74499.99415.0%$926
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T74999.99411.0%$8,760
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T75499.9949.0%$2,330
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T75999.9946.0%$1,336
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T76499.9945.0%$1,151
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T76999.9943.0%$1,266
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T77499.9943.0%$805
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T77999.9942.0%$895
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T78499.9942.0%$345
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T78999.9941.0%$8
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T79499.9941.0%$91
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T79999.9941.0%$32
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T80499.9941.0%$331
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T80999.9941.0%$12
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T81499.9941.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T81999.9943.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T82499.9942.0%$12
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T82999.9944.0%$0
KXBTCD-26APR1717-T83499.9942.0%$348