Bitcoin price on May 29, 2026

The yield curve displays a dramatic inverted structure, with the steepest decline occurring between the $75,000-$76,000 strike range. YES probabilities remain flat and elevated at 99% across the lower strikes from $66,500 to $73,250, then compress sharply from 98% at $73,250 down to just 1% by $80,250. The cheapest YES probability sits at the extreme tails above $79,500, where probabilities collapse to 1-2%. Volume concentration reveals the market's true focus: trading is negligible below $71,000 but explodes dramatically in the $74,000-$77,000 range, with peak volume of $47,672 at the $76,999 strike. This volume clustering indicates the market perceives genuine uncertainty centered around this specific price level rather than at the extremes. The inverted curve structure communicates that market participants expect Bitcoin to remain within a relatively tight range near current levels, with the event resolution likely occurring very soon given the one-day tenor across all markets. The market is pricing in approximately 99% confidence that Bitcoin will stay above $73,250, but only 66% confidence it will exceed $76,999, suggesting the consensus view clusters around $74,000-$77,000. The rapid probability decay above $77,000 and the minimal tail probabilities indicate the market assigns very low likelihood to extreme moves in either direction within this one-day window. The high volume concentration in the mid-range strikes reflects active hedging and positioning around the perceived fair value, rather than speculation on tail outcomes.