Bitcoin price on Jul 13, 2026

The curve exhibits a pronounced downward slope characteristic of a steep bear flattening pattern. Starting at 97% YES probability in the lowest strike bins ($47,499-$49,499), the curve descends sharply through the $50,000-$55,000 range, where probabilities fall from 95% to 85%. The steepest decline occurs between $55,000 and $60,000, where YES probabilities compress from 85% down to 51% across just $5,000 of price movement. Beyond $60,000, the curve continues its descent but at a more gradual rate, eventually flattening out in the $64,000+ range where probabilities stabilize around 1-3%. The cheapest YES probability appears in the upper strike bins above $67,000, where markets price in only 1-2% odds. This structure reveals significant concentration of trading volume in the $57,000-$59,000 region, where daily volumes exceed $23,000-$30,000, suggesting this represents the market's perceived inflection point. The shape indicates the market currently expects Bitcoin to remain below $60,000 with high confidence over the next seven days, but assigns meaningful tail risk to moves above this level. The steep slope between $55,000 and $60,000 suggests genuine uncertainty about whether price will breach this zone, with the market treating $60,000 as a critical resistance level. The flattening tail above $65,000 reflects the market's view that extreme moves beyond this threshold are possible but increasingly unlikely. Overall, the curve communicates a bullish near-term bias—the market prices in roughly 97% probability that Bitcoin stays above $47,500—while simultaneously hedging against upside breakouts through progressively