Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.5% for the year ending in June 2026

The yield curve displays a sharply inverted structure with dramatic steepening across the term spectrum. The 27-day tenor (June 26) shows the highest YES probabilities, clustering around 98-99% for the lower strike prices (T2.5 through T3.4), before collapsing precipitously through the T3.5-T4.5 range where probabilities plummet from 94% to just 1%. The cheapest YES probability appears at the longest tenor, the 86-day August 26 bucket, where most strikes trade at only 2-5%, with isolated exceptions like T3.6 at 29% and T4.7 at 12%. The intermediate 56-day July tenor shows intermediate pricing, generally ranging from 20-70% across the strike spectrum, though with notable anomalies like T4.9 at 93% and T4.0 at 17%. This inverted curve structure reveals a market consensus that the underlying event is highly likely to occur imminently—within the next 27 days—but becomes increasingly unlikely if resolution extends beyond that window. The sharp cliff in probabilities between June and July suggests traders view the event as having a narrow window of opportunity that closes rapidly. The near-zero probabilities at the August tenor indicate minimal conviction that the event remains possible three months out. The curve's shape implies either a time-sensitive catalyst expected within weeks, or a scenario where non-occurrence by late June substantially reduces the probability of eventual occurrence. The high trading volume concentrated in the June bucket (particularly T3.8-T4.1 with volumes exceeding $8,000-$18,000) confirms this near-term focus drives market activity.