Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027

The yield curve for federal charge markets displays a flat structure across all 41 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 133 days to resolution on January 27, 2025. This flat maturity profile means there is no traditional term structure to analyze—no steepening, flattening, or inversion is observable. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities range dramatically from 1.0% (CCHR) to 56.0% (DJSUL), with a median probability around 10.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the extreme low end: CCHR at 1.0%, BCLI and PBON at 2.0%, and JPOW and LCHE at 3.0%. The highest probabilities concentrate on just two markets: DJSUL at 56.0% and AFAU at 53.0%, both commanding substantial trading volume ($0 and $8,536.80 respectively over 24 hours), suggesting these represent distinct sub-events or individuals within the broader federal charge family. The absence of a yield curve across different tenors prevents the market from expressing a view about *when* a federal charge event might occur relative to the January 27 deadline. Instead, the wide dispersion of probabilities within the single tenor indicates the market is highly uncertain about *which* specific charge or individual will materialize, rather than uncertain about timing. The concentration of volume in the two highest-probability markets (DJSUL and AFAU) suggests informed traders have identified specific scenarios as most likely, while the long tail of low-probability markets reflects residual uncertainty about numerous other possible outcomes. The market's current signal is one of fragmented conviction: high confidence that *some* federal charge will occur by January 27