Will Ketel Marte be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team

The prediction market exhibits a completely flat yield curve, with all 95 constituent markets sharing an identical 11-day tenor to resolution. This structural constraint means there is no traditional curve shape to assess—no steepening, flattening, or inversion is observable. Within this single tenor bucket, probabilities display extreme heterogeneity, ranging from 1.0% to 99.0% across individual player markets. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, represented by 24 markets including ACHAPMAN44, BDONOVAN33, BROCCHIO4, and numerous others. The highest probabilities reach 99.0% for ECLEMENT22 and BWITT7, with several markets trading in the 85-98% range. This wide dispersion reflects differentiated assessments of individual player participation in the 2026 MLB All-Star Game rather than temporal uncertainty about event timing. The flat curve structure indicates the market has no duration risk to price—the event resolves in 11 days regardless of which constituent market is examined. The substantial probability variance across players instead reveals the market's confidence in specific roster selections. High-probability markets (90%+) suggest strong consensus that certain players will be selected, while the 1.0% floor markets indicate near-certain exclusion from the All-Star roster. The modest trading volume concentrated in higher-probability markets (LVARLAND77 at $236.16, DBALDWIN30 at $285) suggests active price discovery for consensus picks, while most low-probability markets show zero volume, indicating these are essentially dead-weight positions. The market is fundamentally pricing individual player selection likelihood rather than temporal dynamics.