Will A.J. Brown win the MVP

The yield curve for KXNFLMVP exhibits a completely flat structure, with all 45 constituent markets sharing an identical tenor of 614 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion, ranging from a floor of 1.0% across 28 markets to a peak of 11.0% in KXNFLMVP-27-JHER. The median probability across the cohort sits near 1.5%, with only a handful of markets priced above 5%: KXNFLMVP-27-BPUR at 4.0%, KXNFLMVP-27-DPRE at 5.0%, KXNFLMVP-27-CWIL and KXNFLMVP-27-PMAH at 6.0%, and KXNFLMVP-27-DMAY and KXNFLMVP-27-MSTA at 7.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at 1.0%, representing the modal outcome across the market family. The flat tenor structure prevents traditional yield-curve analysis regarding event timing, since there is no term dimension to evaluate. Instead, the market's cross-sectional pricing reveals extreme skepticism about the base event occurring, with the vast majority of outcomes priced at minimal probability. The wide dispersion in YES prices—despite identical time horizons—suggests these markets represent distinct conditional outcomes or subcategories within the KXNFLMVP event family rather than a pure term structure. The concentration of volume in mid-range probability markets like KXNFLMVP-27-JBUR (9.0