The Open Championship

The yield curve for KXPGAMAKECUT displays a flat structure across all 156 constituent markets, with every market sharing an 18-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities exhibit substantial dispersion, ranging from a floor of 3.0% (JORM) to a ceiling of 58.0% (BCAU), with a median probability clustering around 28-30%. This wide spread indicates significant heterogeneity in market expectations across the constituent markets rather than a traditional term-structure gradient. The cheapest YES probabilities concentrate in the 3-7% range, represented by markets including JORM (3.0%), JHOL (6.0%), CKYE (7.0%), BLEE (7.0%), and JAS (7.0%), while the highest-conviction YES bets reach into the 50%+ range with BCAU (58.0%), KMIT (54.0%), and JPOS (51.0%). The flat tenor structure across all markets suggests the prediction market is pricing a near-term resolution window with no meaningful differentiation between immediate and slightly-delayed outcomes. The market's current view appears to be that the KXPGAMAKECUT event will either materialize within the next 18 days or face substantial uncertainty about its timing. The substantial probability dispersion within this single tenor—rather than across multiple tenors—indicates that market participants are distinguishing between different components or conditions of the event family rather than debating *when* it occurs. This suggests the market is primarily focused on *whether* specific conditions will be met in the immediate 18-day window, with little to no pricing of longer-dated contingencies.