PGA Championship

The yield curve for KXPGAMAKECUT exhibits extreme fragmentation rather than a traditional smooth term structure, as all 156 constituent markets share an identical 18-day tenor. Within this single bucket, YES probabilities display remarkable dispersion, ranging from 2.0% (MAG, ZAH) to 72.0% (MLEE), with a median probability around 52-54%. This wide spread suggests the event family encompasses highly heterogeneous outcomes or conditions, where market participants assign vastly different likelihoods depending on specific resolution criteria embedded in each contract. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the 2-4% range (MAG, ZAH, CHG, JED, BRF, AUH, FRB, MIB), while the highest probabilities concentrate in the 65-72% range (ALF, MLEE, RFOW, NHOJ, HHAL, ANOR, THD). The heaviest trading volume concentrates in the extreme-probability contracts—MIB ($14.4k), ALF ($12.5k), and ASMA ($3.4k)—indicating strong conviction around specific outcomes. The market's current positioning reveals bifurcated expectations about event resolution within the 18-day window. The concentration of high-volume trading at both probability extremes suggests participants are not hedging uncertainty but rather taking directional bets on distinct, mutually exclusive scenarios. The absence of longer-dated contracts prevents assessment of term structure dynamics, but the intense activity in low-probability contracts (particularly MIB at 6% and FRB at 4%) indicates meaningful tail-risk pricing. This pattern implies the market views the event outcome as largely determined or highly path-dependent on near-