U.S. Open

The prediction market yield curve displays a dramatic steepening pattern, with the 14-day tenor bucket trading substantially cheaper than the 28-day bucket. At 14 days, YES probabilities are depressed at 13.0% and 1.0% across the two available markets, while the 28-day tenor shows a wide distribution ranging from 1.0% to 98.0%, with a median probability around 28-35%. This steep upward slope indicates that market participants are pricing in significantly lower near-term event probability but substantially higher probability as the resolution window extends to 28 days. The cheapest YES probability resides in the 14-day bucket, particularly the SEN market at just 1.0%, suggesting the market views near-term event occurrence as highly unlikely. The shape of this curve communicates that the market expects the event either to not occur within the next two weeks or to require additional time to materialize. The steep steepening from tau=14d to tau=28d implies market participants are pricing in either a catalyst or accumulating probability mass that becomes more likely between weeks two and four. The wide dispersion of probabilities at the 28-day tenor—from tail-risk 1.0% markets to near-certainty 98.0% markets—reflects heterogeneous constituent outcomes within the event family, but the overall upward slope suggests the market is not pricing imminent resolution. This structure indicates traders believe the event family will develop over the coming month rather than resolve in the immediate fortnight.