The Open Championship

The yield curve displays a dramatic steepening pattern, with the shortest tenor (22 days) showing extreme polarization and the 29-day bucket revealing substantial compression around mid-range probabilities. At tau=22d, YES probabilities cluster at either extreme—three markets trade at 91.0% (DDUV, MHOM, TWIE) while three others sit at just 1.0% (JBAL, SGRE), with one outlier at 11.0% (AFIT). This binary structure suggests near-term resolution clarity for specific constituent outcomes. The 29-day tenor bucket, by contrast, displays a much wider distribution spanning 3.0% to 86.0%, with the median probability falling in the 16-25% range. The cheapest YES probabilities appear in the 29-day bucket, where JKRU trades at 3.0% and DRIL at 4.0%, substantially below the 22-day floor. This inversion—where longer-dated contracts trade cheaper than shorter-dated ones—indicates the market expects significant probability decay as time extends. The curve's shape communicates that the market views near-term outcomes as largely determined, with high conviction on specific 22-day resolutions, while remaining substantially uncertain about which constituents will achieve top-20 status by the 29-day mark. The steepness reflects declining confidence in individual constituent success as the time horizon expands. High-volume markets like PREE (40.0%, $12.4k volume) and JLUI (39.0%, $10.1k volume) at 29 days suggest active price discovery around mid-probability outcomes, while the extreme probabilities at 22 days—despite zero volume