Masters Tournament

The yield curve for KXPGATOUR exhibits a completely flat structure across all 43 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical 211-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities cluster tightly around 1–3%, with the notable exceptions of SSCH at 25.0%, RMCI at 8.0%, and JRAH at 5.0%. The median probability across the cohort sits near 1–2%, making these three outliers the primary drivers of dispersion. Volume concentration reinforces this pattern: the highest-volume contracts (JKOI at $1,287.80, SSCH at $1,819.79, and RMCI at $865.71) correspond to the elevated probability outliers, while the baseline $201.21 volume floor applies to the majority of lower-probability markets. The absence of a traditional yield curve shape—with varying tenors—means the market offers no intertemporal signal about event timing. The flat structure and compressed probability distribution suggest the market views the underlying event (likely a PGA Tour outcome or tournament result) as highly unlikely to occur across most scenarios, with only a handful of specific outcomes commanding meaningful conviction. The three elevated-probability contracts likely represent favored outcomes or more liquid betting interest, while the 1–2% baseline reflects either long-shot scenarios or thin liquidity in secondary markets. Because all contracts resolve simultaneously at 211 days, the market cannot signal whether it expects the event to happen sooner or later—only whether it expects it to happen at all. The current pricing implies the market assigns roughly 80–90% cumulative probability to a "no" outcome across the event family, with the remainder distributed across discrete YES scenarios of varying plausibility.