Will Adri Arnaus win the The Open Last-Chance Qualifier

The yield curve for KXPGATOUR displays a completely flat structure, with all 143 constituent markets clustered at the single 16-day tenor. Within this uniform tenor bucket, probabilities show substantial dispersion rather than a traditional curve shape. The cheapest YES probabilities concentrate at 1.0%, representing the modal outcome across roughly 80 markets, while the most expensive reach 19.0% (RMCI) and 10.0% (SSCH). This flat architecture means there is no traditional steepening or flattening dynamic to observe—the entire market is pricing outcomes for a single resolution window rather than displaying term structure across multiple time horizons. The flatness of this curve, combined with the concentration of all markets at tau=16 days, indicates the market is pricing a discrete event with a fixed resolution date rather than an uncertain timing scenario. The wide probability dispersion at this single tenor—ranging from 1% to 19%—reflects differentiated views on *which* outcome will occur within that fixed window, not *when* it will occur. The prevalence of 1% probabilities suggests the market assigns low baseline odds to most individual outcomes, with elevated probabilities reserved for a handful of favorites like RMCI (19%), SSCH (10%), and MFIT (5%). This structure implies participants view the event as binary and imminent, with disagreement centered on the specific result rather than timing uncertainty.