Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart win the Charles Schwab Challenge

The yield curve displays a dramatic steepening pattern, with the 17-day tenor (CHSC26) markets clustering predominantly at 1-3% YES probabilities, while the 38-day tenor (USO26) markets uniformly price at 1% YES. The cheapest YES probabilities reside in the longer-dated 38-day bucket, where all four observable markets (ABHA, AFIT, AHID, ANOR) trade at 1%, compared to the 17-day tenor which shows greater dispersion with probabilities ranging from 1% to 9%. The most heavily traded near-term market, LABE at 17 days, commands a notably elevated 9% probability, while most other 17-day markets cluster at the 1-3% range. This inverted structure—where longer-dated contracts are cheaper than near-term equivalents—is unusual and suggests significant repricing dynamics between the two tenors. The market's current pricing implies skepticism about the event occurring within the immediate 17-day window, with most individual outcomes priced at minimal probability. However, the concentration of higher probabilities in the near term, particularly the 9% outlier in LABE and several 3-4% markets (ASMA, BGRI, JSPA, RFOW, RHEN, RMAC), suggests the market believes if the event materializes, it will likely do so within the next two to three weeks rather than extending to the 38-day horizon. The sharp probability collapse between tenors indicates either significant uncertainty resolution expected before day 38, or a market view that the event's probability window is front-loaded and rapidly decaying.