Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup

The yield curve displays a remarkably flat structure across both tenor buckets, with the 34-day markets and 35-day markets showing virtually identical probability distributions. Within the 34-day bucket, YES probabilities cluster heavily in the 46-78% range for the most liquid contracts, while the 35-day bucket mirrors this pattern with comparable concentration around 43-88%. The cheapest YES probabilities appear consistently across both tenors in the 2-7% range, representing tail-risk outcomes. Notably, there is no meaningful steepening or flattening between the two buckets—the curve remains essentially flat at a single-day separation, suggesting the market perceives minimal temporal differentiation in outcome timing. The highest-volume contracts (KXWCGOALCOUNT-26LMESSI10-9 at $380.99 and KXWCGOALCOUNT-26CRIS7-6 at $320.27) trade at mid-range probabilities of 50% and 2% respectively, indicating active disagreement on specific outcome ranges. This flat curve structure implies the market views the event resolution as imminent and largely predetermined, with little expectation that additional information will materially shift probabilities over the next 24 hours. The absence of a yield curve slope suggests traders are pricing in that the outcome will be determined within the near-term window, leaving minimal room for probability evolution. The concentration of volume in moderate-probability contracts (40-80% range) rather than extreme outcomes indicates the market expects a "normal" or baseline scenario to materialize. The flatness across such a tight tenor spread reveals high confidence in the event's timing proximity, with market participants treating the 34-day and 35-day horizons as functionally equivalent—a signal