Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals

The yield curve displays a pronounced steepening pattern across the 15-to-19 day tenor spectrum. The shortest-tenor markets at 15 days show the cheapest YES probabilities, clustering predominantly in the 2-8% range with notable exceptions like NED2 at 19% and NOR2 at 25%. As tenor extends to 16-18 days, probabilities rise substantially, with markets like FRA2 reaching 56%, ENG2 at 52%, ESP2 at 50%, and ARG2 climbing to 62% by the 19-day bucket. This steep upward slope indicates a significant repricing of event likelihood as resolution dates move forward, with the most dramatic probability increases occurring between the 15-day and 16-18 day tenors. The curve shows no flattening or inversion; instead, it exhibits consistent upward pressure across all tenor extensions. The market's term structure communicates a clear expectation that the underlying event outcomes are substantially more likely to materialize in the 16-19 day window than in the immediate 15-day period. This steepening suggests either that market participants view near-term catalysts as unlikely but anticipate meaningful developments within the extended timeframe, or that probabilities are being systematically repriced upward as resolution approaches. The consistent elevation of probabilities across all constituent markets in longer tenors—particularly the doubling or tripling of YES odds between 15 and 19 days—indicates the market is pricing in either information arrival, event momentum building, or a genuine shift in underlying conditions expected to occur between these resolution dates.