Will Spain score over 0.5 goals

The yield curve displays a notably flat structure across the 15-18 day tenor range, with YES probabilities clustering tightly around 40-90% depending on the specific outcome being priced. The 15-day bucket (England vs. Colombia, Mexico vs. Ecuador) shows the cheapest YES probabilities for underdog outcomes, with Colombia at 7.0%, Ecuador at 4.0%, and Mexico's third-place finish at 4.0%. Moving to the 16-17 day tenors (Belgium vs. Senegal, USA vs. Bosnia, Spain vs. Austria, Portugal vs. Croatia, Switzerland vs. Algeria, Australia vs. Egypt), probabilities remain remarkably consistent, suggesting minimal temporal decay or repricing across this compressed timeframe. The 18-day bucket (Argentina vs. Cape Verde) shows a slight uptick in favorite probabilities, with Argentina's primary outcome at 92.0%, but this represents only marginal differentiation from earlier tenors. The flatness of this curve indicates the market perceives these events as essentially simultaneous occurrences rather than sequential developments. The consistency in probability levels across 15-18 days suggests traders view the outcome distribution as largely determined now, with little expectation of information arrival that would materially shift odds. The high concentration of volume in mid-probability outcomes (Mexico 2nd place at 34.0% with $12.7M volume, England 2nd place at 64.0%) reveals genuine uncertainty about intermediate results, while the flat structure implies this uncertainty is not expected to resolve gradually but rather all at once upon event completion. The market is essentially pricing these as a single event cluster rather than a staggered sequence.