Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show

The yield curve presents a remarkably flat structure across all 132 constituent markets, with every single contract sharing an identical tenor of 220 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities cluster heavily at the low end, with the modal probability at 1.0% represented by 79 markets. The distribution shows modest variation above this floor, with probabilities reaching 2.0% (11 markets), 3.0% (6 markets), 4.0% (1 market), and 5.0% (3 markets), with a single notable outlier at 28.0% for the COL market. The cheapest YES probability across the entire curve sits at 1.0%, which dominates the pricing landscape. Trading activity concentrates heavily on just a handful of contracts, with DRA, TRA, and COL accounting for the vast majority of 24-hour volume at $145.99, $233.95, and $156.36 respectively, while 95 markets show zero trading activity. The flat structure with uniformly distant resolution dates prevents traditional yield-curve interpretation about timing expectations. Instead, the market's current view emerges from the probability distribution itself: the overwhelming concentration at 1.0% suggests extremely low conviction that most of these specific outcomes will occur at the halftime event. The COL market's 28.0% probability stands as a stark exception, indicating concentrated belief in that particular outcome. The near-universal pricing at or near the floor reflects either genuine scarcity value for these tail outcomes or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery. The market is essentially saying these events are highly unlikely, with minimal differentiation across the 220-day horizon and only one outcome commanding material probability mass.