Who will perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup final halftime show

The yield curve for KXWORLDCUPHALFTIME displays a remarkably flat structure, with all 131 constituent markets sharing an identical 175-day tenor to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities cluster tightly around 1.0% to 3.0%, with the modal probability at 1.0% across the majority of markets. The cheapest YES probabilities are uniformly distributed at 1.0%, representing roughly 80 markets in the sample, while outliers emerge at higher probabilities: BAB and BRY trade at 14.0% and 18.0% respectively, and several markets (DRA, JCO) price at 5.0% to 8.0%. The concentration of volume appears distributed across multiple markets, with notable activity in KAN ($15,280), BAD ($19,883), and several mid-tier markets like BLA, FAL, and ED, suggesting diverse participant interest rather than consensus around specific outcomes. The flat structure and compressed probability distribution indicate the market views this event as highly unlikely to occur within the 175-day window, with minimal differentiation in timing expectations across the constituent markets. The prevalence of 1.0% pricing suggests participants assign very low baseline probability to the event materializing, while the scattered higher probabilities (BAB at 14.0%, BRY at 18.0%) may reflect either specific market-specific factors or outlier positioning. The absence of any tenor variation prevents curve-shape analysis of when the event might occur, but the uniformly depressed probability levels across all markets collectively signal strong market skepticism about event realization at this resolution horizon.