What is the current probability for "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 48¢ (48% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 1, 2026. 189 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 256.5% and 146.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 48% probability that Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers. This contract trades at 48¢ on Kalshi, closing November 1, 2026. This market shows extreme realized volatility of 394% with a vol ratio of 2.78, suggesting significant price swings despite the mid-probability 51¢ pricing and tight 1¢ spread.

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48¢

Bid/Ask 43/46¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $250.57·OI $30,994.04·Closes Nov 1, 2026·189d remaining

KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-PIT

7-day price484 snapshots · 15 regime

54¢43¢ current

Apr 838¢Apr 26

Analysis

9d ago

This market shows extreme realized volatility of 394% with a vol ratio of 2.78, suggesting significant price swings despite the mid-probability 51¢ pricing and tight 1¢ spread. The 184% annualized yield is exceptionally high for a binary event with nearly 200 days to expiry, indicating either substantial uncertainty about Pittsburgh's playoff chances or potential mispricing relative to fundamental odds. With only $419 in 24-hour volume against $29.5k open interest, liquidity is thin, which may explain both the high yield and the outsized volatility—traders should be cautious about position sizing given the low trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Pittsburgh is one of the 2026 Pro Baseball Playoff Qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 256.5%

IY (No) 146.0%

Adj IY 233%

CRI 1

RV 312%

VR 2.01

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	256.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	146.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	233%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	312%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.01	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	10.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.09	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Computed

4/27/2026, 12:26:13 AM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 12:23:30 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBPLAYOFFS-26-PIT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →