SimpleFunctions

What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Hoax is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 60¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026.

Price history

50¢ current

+9¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 9, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump says Hoax as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Hoax

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Fake News 87¢

Range

8¢-87¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-HOAX

Jun 23, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 21m ago

Implied probability

50¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 23, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 21m ago

Bid

50¢

Ask

60¢

Spread

10¢

24h volume

$23

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

50 / 60¢

Kalshi
10¢ spread
BidSize
50¢10
49¢5
45¢5
25¢66
23¢25
AskSize
60¢127
61¢216
78¢4
82¢1.6K
85¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump says Hoax as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner originally scheduled for July 24th, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 8, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTION-26JUL24-HOAX

SF Signal
SF Index
859.32
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

859.3%

IY (No)

732.2%

Adj IY

859%

CRI

1

RV

2001%

VR

3.58

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

859.3%
732.2%
Adj IY
859%
1
RV
2001%
VR
3.58
IAR
0.8/h
Overround
13.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.