Who will IPO before 2027?

This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1150% implied yield on Yes contracts against just 17.6% on No, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether any company will IPO in the next 257 days—a timeframe that historically sees multiple public offerings. The 12¢ price seems conservative given the broad resolution criteria (any IPO qualifies), though the thin $300 daily volume and modest $7.4k open interest suggest limited conviction, and the elevated 1273% realized volatility with a 3.69 vol ratio indicates significant pricing instability that may not fully reflect fundamental probabilities. The 8/10 cliff risk score warrants caution, as binary outcomes near expiry can experience sharp repricing regardless of underlying conditions.

Resolution rules

If Ramp confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

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