Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Steve Bannon is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
24¢ current
Contract brief
If Steve Bannon announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Steve Bannon
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 77¢
Range
10¢-77¢
Family volume
$409
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Jul 21, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$8K
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$409
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Steve Bannon announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Event family
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$409
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 77¢
Current share
0%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Ted Cruz
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Glenn Youngkin
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-GYOU
Marjorie Taylor Greene
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MTAY
Tucker Carlson
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Steve Bannon
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Vivek Ramaswamy
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-VRAM
Donald J. Trump Jr.
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Tulsi Gabbard
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TGAB
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-SHS
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RFK
Byron Donalds
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Nikki Haley
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-NHAL
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.