Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2028. This market is pricing Ted Cruz's 2028 Republican primary run at an 81% probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers a 219.8% implied yield versus just 15.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant uncertainty despite the high price.
Analysis
This market is pricing Ted Cruz's 2028 Republican primary run at an 81% probability with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers a 219.8% implied yield versus just 15.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant uncertainty despite the high price. With only $5,807 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is extremely thin, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading as a true market-clearing price. The 625-day timeframe and neutral regime score indicate this is a longer-dated speculation with moderate cliff risk (4/10), though the stagnant 7-day price action (79¢ flat) suggests limited recent conviction either way.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU yes 100