Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Ted Cruz is priced at 68¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 63¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
Price history
68¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ted Cruz
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 72¢
Range
11¢-72¢
Family volume
$852
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Jun 6, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$18K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$852
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ted Cruz announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Republican party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$852
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 72¢
Current share
0%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JVAN
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MRUB
Ted Cruz
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TCRU
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RDES
Tucker Carlson
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TUC
Thomas Massie
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-TMAS
Rand Paul
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-RPAU
Steve Bannon
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-STE
Matt Gaetz
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-MGAE
Byron Donalds
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-BDON
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JBEZ
Erika Kirk
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-EKIR
Pete Hegseth
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-PHEG
Spencer Pratt
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-SPRA
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-DJT
John McEntee
kalshi · KX2028RRUN-28-JMCE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 68% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.