11 · Will Democrats win
11 is priced at 23¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
23¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party has won exactly 11 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
11
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
10 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$32
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
Jul 16, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$32
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has won exactly 11 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$32
Outcomes
8
Highest price
10 24¢
Current share
0%
10
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E10
11
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
12
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E12
14 and above
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
9
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
13
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E13
8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Below 8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-B8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.