9 · Will Democrats win
9 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 9¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
9¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party has won exactly 9 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
9
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
10 26¢
Range
3¢-26¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
Jul 21, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has won exactly 9 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
8
Highest price
10 26¢
Current share
—
10
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E10
12
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E12
11
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
9
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
13
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E13
14 and above
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
Below 8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-B8
8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.