Democrats win at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas
14 and above is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
8¢ current
Contract brief
If the Democratic party has won at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
14 and above
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
10 26¢
Range
3¢-26¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
Jul 21, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has won at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
8
Highest price
10 26¢
Current share
—
10
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E10
12
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E12
11
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
9
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
13
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E13
14 and above
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
Below 8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-B8
8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.