8 · Will Democrats win
8 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will Democrats win.
Price history
4¢ current
Contract brief
If the Democratic party has won exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
8
Rank
#7 of 8
Leader
10 27¢
Range
1¢-27¢
Family volume
$32
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Jul 17, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$32
Family rank
#7 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Family volume
$32
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has won exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
Identifier
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Event family
Will Democrats win.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$32
Outcomes
8
Highest price
10 27¢
Current share
100%
10
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E10
12
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E12
11
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
9
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
14 and above
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
13
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E13
8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Below 8
kalshi · KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-B8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
maker
Score
0.295
Observability
none
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.