Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas
Leader sits at 27% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
10
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
12
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
169 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 10
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E10
Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 9
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E9
Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 8
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E8
Will Democrats win exactly 13 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 13
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E13
Will Democrats win exactly 12 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 12
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E12
Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 11
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-E11
Will Democrats win below 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: Below 8
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-B8
Will Democrats win at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 14 and above
KXTXHOUSEDEMSEATS-26NOV03-A13
Analysis
This contract reflects a 26% probability that Democrats will win exactly 8 seats in Texas's 2026 House elections. Texas has 36 House seats total, and Democrats' performance depends heavily on turnout dynamics, suburban district competitiveness, and national political environment. The probability is relatively modest because Democrats capturing exactly 8 seats represents a narrow outcome—they could win fewer seats in a GOP wave or more seats in a favorable environment. The 2026 midterm election on November 5, 2026, will resolve this contract. Current factors include redistricting impacts from 2022, the performance of specific suburban districts (particularly around Houston, Dallas, and Austin), and whether Democrats can maintain 2022 gains.
- ›Texas had 13 Democratic House members elected in 2022; winning exactly 8 would represent a significant loss from that baseline
- ›Suburban districts in major metros (Harris County, Tarrant County, Dallas County) show swing dynamics that determine whether Democrats stay above or fall below 8 seats
- ›National midterm environment in 2026 will affect turnout and candidate recruitment, with historical patterns showing midterms typically favor the party opposing the sitting president
- ›Redistricting and demographic changes since 2022 altered district competitiveness; some previously lean-R districts may have become more competitive
- ›Early special election results and 2024 presidential performance in Texas House districts will provide indicators of the electoral environment heading into November 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 1611↓7pp20→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1610↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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