Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points
Democrats, ≥10% is priced at 47¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 47¢ bid, 54¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 8 inside Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least.
Price history
47¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democrats, ≥10%
Rank
#5 of 8
Leader
Democrats, ≥2% 90¢
Range
3¢-90¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Sep 22, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
47¢
Ask
54¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$500
Family rank
#5 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
47 / 54¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Event family
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Democrats, ≥2% 90¢
Current share
25%
Democrats, ≥2%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Democrats, ≥4%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Democrats, ≥6%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Democrats, ≥8%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Democrats, ≥10%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Democrats, ≥12%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Democrats, ≥14%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
Democrats, ≥16%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.