Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points
Democrats, ≥8% is priced at 63¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 72¢ bid, 79¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 8 inside Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least.
Price history
63¢ current
Contract brief
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democrats, ≥8%
Rank
#4 of 8
Leader
Democrats, ≥2% 90¢
Range
3¢-90¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Sep 22, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
72¢
Ask
79¢
Spread
7¢
Reported volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 8
8 outcomes · Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
72 / 79¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 3, 2027
Identifier
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Event family
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Democrats, ≥2% 90¢
Current share
19%
Democrats, ≥2%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Democrats, ≥4%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Democrats, ≥6%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Democrats, ≥8%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Democrats, ≥10%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Democrats, ≥12%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Democrats, ≥14%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
Democrats, ≥16%
kalshi · KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.45
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.