What is the current probability for "Will Drake be featured on Travis Scott's next album?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 49¢ (49% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Drake be featured on Travis Scott's next album?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 214.9% and 95.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Drake be featured on Travis Scott's next album?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Drake be featured on Travis Scott's next album?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 49% probability that Will Drake be featured on Travis Scott's next album?. This contract trades at 49¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $256 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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49¢

Bid/Ask 40/49¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $19.7·OI $256·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXFEATURETRAVISSCOTT-27-DRA

7-day price3 snapshots · 2 regime

40¢40¢ current

Apr 1539¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal $256 open interest, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The asymmetric implied yields (219.9% Yes vs. 89.9% No) and wide 10¢ spread suggest significant uncertainty and thin order books rather than genuine probability consensus. With 260 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, there's ample time for resolution, but traders should demand substantial liquidity improvements before committing capital to either side.

Resolution rules

If Drake is featured on Travis Scott's next album before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 214.9%

IY (No) 95.5%

Adj IY 107%

CRI 2

Overround 3.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	214.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	95.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	107%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:41:07 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEATURETRAVISSCOTT-27-DRA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →