SimpleFunctions

United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 above 5.7%

Above 5.7% is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 39¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above.

Price history

60¢ current

50¢60¢70¢
Jun 17, 2026Jun 20, 2026

Contract brief

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 5.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 5.7%

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Above 5.7% 60¢

Range

2¢-60¢

Family volume

$9

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.7

Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago

Implied probability

60¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago

Bid

60¢

Ask

99¢

Spread

39¢

Reported volume

$473

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Family volume

$9

Orderbook snapshot

60 / 99¢

Kalshi
39¢ spread
BidSize
60¢1
21¢10
AskSize
99¢47

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 5.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T5.7

SF Signal
SF Index
1386.57
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1232.5%

IY (No)

2773.1%

Adj IY

1387%

CRI

2

Overround

1.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1232.5%
2773.1%
Adj IY
1387%
2
Overround
1.7%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Volatility Arbitrage in Prediction Markets: Why Political Favorites Above 60¢ Are Systematically Underconfident

A binary contract at price p has variance p(1-p). Le 2026 (292M trades) finds political markets underconfident at slopes 0.93-1.83 — meaning a 70¢ contract corresponds to a true probability near 83%. Four systematic vol-arb trades follow from the calibration evidence.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.