SimpleFunctions

United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 above 6.8%

Above 6.8% is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above.

Price history

22¢ current

+16¢
0¢25¢
Jun 11, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 6.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 6.8%

Rank

#8 of 16

Leader

Above 5.7% 60¢

Range

2¢-60¢

Family volume

$8

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.8

Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

22¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

13¢

Ask

24¢

Spread

11¢

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#8 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Family volume

$8

Orderbook snapshot

13 / 24¢

Kalshi
11¢ spread
BidSize
13¢4
12¢3
AskSize
24¢50
28¢806
79¢10
98¢44
99¢39

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 6.8%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T6.8

SF Signal
SF Index
6014.71
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

12029.4%

IY (No)

268.6%

Adj IY

6015%

CRI

7

Overround

1.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

12029.4%
268.6%
Adj IY
6015%
7
Overround
1.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.