SimpleFunctions

United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 above 8.0%

Above 8.0% is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above.

Price history

3¢ current

+2¢
0¢10¢
Jun 11, 2026Jun 14, 2026

Contract brief

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 8.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Above 8.0%

Rank

#15 of 16

Leader

Above 5.7% 60¢

Range

2¢-60¢

Family volume

$8

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T8.0

Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 25, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 14m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$130

Family rank

#15 of 16

16 outcomes · Will the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 be above

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Family volume

$8

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
5¢6
19¢42
20¢200
98¢52
100¢2

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If year-over-year percent change in the United States Producer Price Index for final demand for June 2026 is above 8.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 15, 2026

Identifier

KXUSPPIYOY-26JUL15-T8.0

SF Signal
SF Index
29059.56
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

58119.1%

IY (No)

55.6%

Adj IY

29060%

CRI

32

Overround

1.7%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

58119.1%
55.6%
Adj IY
29060%
32
Overround
1.7%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.