Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will there be more than 0 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $383.23 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $383.23 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The massive 29¢ bid-ask spread and asymmetric implied yields (82.1% for Yes versus 309.2% for No) suggest significant pricing inefficiency, with the No side offering dramatically outsized returns that likely reflects the illiquid market structure rather than true probability. Recent price movement from 60¢ to 66¢ over seven days indicates modest upward momentum, though with such thin liquidity, even small trades could move the price substantially before the December 2026 expiration.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 0 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T0 yes 100