Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will there be more than 6 major Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ price implying only 5% probability for exceeding 6 major hurricanes, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 1433% implied yield—a red flag for either severe underpricing or hidden tail risk.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 5¢ price implying only 5% probability for exceeding 6 major hurricanes, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 1433% implied yield—a red flag for either severe underpricing or hidden tail risk. The near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and minimal open interest ($93.55) indicate dangerously low liquidity, making the wide 12¢ spread unreliable for execution. The 7-day price surge from 6¢ to 10¢ suggests recent informed trading, though the current 5¢ quote may reflect a reversion or data lag, warranting caution given the high cliff risk index of 9 and 229 days until expiry.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 6 hurricanes of hurricane category 3 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOTMAJ-26DEC01-T6 yes 100