Will Future release new album before Dec 1, 2026
Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 1, 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
66¢
Before Aug 1, 2027
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Oct 1, 2027
378 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Future release new album before
Will Future release new album before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-26DEC01
Will Future release new album before Oct 1, 2027?: Before Oct 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-27OCT01
Will Future release new album before Jun 1, 2027?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-27JUN01
Will Future release new album before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-27FEB01
Will Future release new album before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-27AUG01
Will Future release new album before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWFUTURE-27APR01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that rapper Future will release a new studio album by December 1, 2026—roughly four months from now. The 11¢ price suggests traders view an album release in this timeframe as unlikely but plausible. The wider contract distribution shows traders increasingly confident he will release something by mid-2027, with August 2027 priced at 42¢. Key drivers include Future's recent release schedule, any announced tour dates or promotional activity, and statements from the artist or his label about upcoming projects. The main uncertainty resolver would be an official album announcement or release date confirmation, which typically occurs weeks or months before the actual release. Current low trading volume suggests limited market attention to this specific question.
- ›Future's most recent album release date and typical gap between studio albums
- ›Any announced tour dates, festival appearances, or promotional campaigns between now and December 2026
- ›Official statements from Future, his label (Epic/Freebandz), or credible music industry sources regarding album status
- ›The gap in implied probabilities across timeframes (11¢ by Dec 2026 vs 42¢ by Aug 2027) suggests traders expect release in early-to-mid 2027 more than late 2026
- ›Zero trading volume on the December 2026 contract indicates minimal active speculation on the near-term timeline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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