SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 1, 2027 · 378d

Will Future release new album before Dec 1, 2026

Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 66%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

75%

Before Oct 1, 2027

runner-up 66¢leader 75¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

66¢

Before Aug 1, 2027

Spread

9pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Oct 1, 2027

378 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore Oct 1, 2027: 75% (18 days, 18 points)Before Oct 1, 2027: 75% on 2026-09-11Before Aug 1, 2027: 66% (18 days, 18 points)Before Aug 1, 2027: 66% on 2026-09-11Before Jun 1, 2027: 52% (18 days, 18 points)Before Jun 1, 2027: 52% on 2026-09-11
Before Oct 1, 202775¢Before Aug 1, 202766¢Before Jun 1, 202752¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 18d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that rapper Future will release a new studio album by December 1, 2026—roughly four months from now. The 11¢ price suggests traders view an album release in this timeframe as unlikely but plausible. The wider contract distribution shows traders increasingly confident he will release something by mid-2027, with August 2027 priced at 42¢. Key drivers include Future's recent release schedule, any announced tour dates or promotional activity, and statements from the artist or his label about upcoming projects. The main uncertainty resolver would be an official album announcement or release date confirmation, which typically occurs weeks or months before the actual release. Current low trading volume suggests limited market attention to this specific question.

  • Future's most recent album release date and typical gap between studio albums
  • Any announced tour dates, festival appearances, or promotional campaigns between now and December 2026
  • Official statements from Future, his label (Epic/Freebandz), or credible music industry sources regarding album status
  • The gap in implied probabilities across timeframes (11¢ by Dec 2026 vs 42¢ by Aug 2027) suggests traders expect release in early-to-mid 2027 more than late 2026
  • Zero trading volume on the December 2026 contract indicates minimal active speculation on the near-term timeline

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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