Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
0x68e47e…fb5b
Analysis
This market estimates a 9% chance that Lai Ching-te will no longer serve as Taiwan's President before year-end 2026—roughly six months from now. Such an outcome would require extraordinary circumstances, as presidential removal in Taiwan is constitutionally difficult and typically requires impeachment by the legislature followed by conviction. The low probability reflects the significant political barriers to such action. The main factors influencing this estimate are the composition of Taiwan's legislature, the health and political stability of President Lai, and the possibility of unforeseen constitutional crises. The most immediate catalyst would be any major health incident affecting the president or a dramatic political shift in the Legislative Yuan that might alter impeachment dynamics. Currently, Lai's Democratic Progressive Party holds a legislative plurality, making removal highly unlikely absent extraordinary events.
- ›Taiwan's Legislative Yuan would need to initiate impeachment and achieve the required supermajority to convict and remove a sitting president, a constitutionally demanding process
- ›No major health incidents, constitutional crises, or political scandals involving President Lai have been reported as of mid-2026
- ›The Democratic Progressive Party's legislative position affects the practical likelihood of any removal effort succeeding
- ›Taiwan's political system has never successfully removed a sitting president through impeachment since democratization in the 1990s
- ›The six-month timeframe to year-end 2026 limits the window for political developments that could trigger presidential succession
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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