Will Mongolia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
87 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bangladesh win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Bangladesh win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Bangladesh
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-BGD
Cluster 2
Will Bhutan win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Bhutan win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Bhutan
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-BTN
Cluster 3
Will Cambodia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Cambodia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Cambodia
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-KHM
Cluster 4
Will Republic of Korea win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Republic of Korea win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Republic of Korea
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-KOR
Cluster 5
Will Laos win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Laos win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Laos
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-LAO
Cluster 6
Will Mongolia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Mongolia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Mongolia
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-MNG
Cluster 7
Will Malaysia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Malaysia win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Malaysia
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-MYS
Cluster 8
Will Nepal win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Nepal win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Nepal
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-NPL
Cluster 9
Will Philippines win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Philippines win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Philippines
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-PHL
Cluster 10
Will Thailand win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Thailand win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Thailand
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-THA
Cluster 11
Will Vietnam win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026
Will Vietnam win Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026?: Vietnam
KXEUROVISIONASIA-26-VNM
Analysis
Mongolia is currently priced at a 7% probability of winning Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026, meaning markets estimate roughly a 1-in-14 chance of victory. This probability reflects Mongolia's historical performance in Eurovision competitions and its regional competitive standing relative to other Asian participants. The main drivers of this estimate are Mongolia's track record in international music competitions and the strength of competing nations' submissions. The resolution will occur when Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 takes place and concludes with final voting results. Key factors include Mongolia's artist selection and song quality compared to rival entries, voting patterns from previous Eurovision Asia editions, the judging panel composition, and the size and composition of the participating country field.
- ›Mongolia's historical placement and point totals in previous Eurovision Song Contest Asia competitions
- ›The international appeal and technical quality of Mongolia's selected entry relative to confirmed competing nations
- ›Voting demographic composition of Eurovision Song Contest Asia 2026 and historical voting patterns favoring or penalizing Mongolian entries
- ›The total number of participating countries in the 2026 edition and strength of competing entries
- ›Presence of regional rivals Vietnam (priced at 10%) and other traditionally strong performers in the competition pool
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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