Will Pitbull release a new album before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Feb 1, 2027
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
137 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Pitbull release a new album before
Will Pitbull release a new album before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWPIT-26DEC01
Will Pitbull release a new album before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWPIT-27JAN01
Will Pitbull release a new album before Feb 1, 2027?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWPIT-27FEB01
Will Pitbull release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWPIT-26OCT01
Will Pitbull release a new album before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXALBUMRELEASEDATE-NEWPIT-26NOV01
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 54% probability that Pitbull will release a new album before February 1, 2027, with only a 6% probability of release by September 1, 2026. This wide gap between the near-term and longer-term windows suggests traders expect no imminent album announcement in the next three weeks, but view a release within six months as more likely than not. The probability reflects uncertainty around Pitbull's current production schedule and release plans—he has not announced specific dates. Traders appear to be pricing in either a late 2026 release or the possibility of further delays into 2027. Near-term resolution comes September 1, after which the market will know whether any album dropped during the summer months. The key tension is between Pitbull's historically active release cadence and the absence of public pre-release signals as of early August 2026.
- ›Pitbull released no album in 2025 or early 2026, suggesting either a longer recording cycle or strategic delay
- ›The 48-point gap between Sep 1 (6%) and Feb 1 (54%) deadlines indicates traders expect release timing in Q4 2026 rather than immediate
- ›No announced album title, tracklist, or release date has been publicly disclosed as of August 5, 2026
- ›Pitbull's historical pattern averages 1-2 album releases per year, but recent years show increased spacing between projects
- ›September 1, 2026 passes in 27 days; any pre-release hype or announcements in that window would be concrete market-moving events
What moved the line
- Sep 10Before Jan 1, 2027↓17pp95→78¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Before Feb 1, 2027↓6pp96→90¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Before Dec 1, 2026↓3pp96→93¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Before Dec 1, 2026↑3pp93→96¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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