AI Model Race: GPT-6 Release a Coin Flip, Astra Heavily Favored
OpenAI's GPT-6 release before Oct 2026 is at 47¢, while its Astra model is at 83¢. Anthropic's Mythos is a long-shot at 9¢. Waymo expansion is near certain, reflecting broader autonomous driving confidence.
Key takeaways
- 01
OpenAI's GPT-6 release before Oct 2026 is at 47¢, while its Astra model is at 83¢.
- 02
Anthropic's Mythos is a long-shot at 9¢.
- 03
Waymo expansion is near certain, reflecting broader autonomous driving confidence.
Full analysis
The AI model release markets are among the most active in the tech space. The GPT-6 release by Oct 1, 2026 (KXGPT-OPEN-26OCT01) is priced at 47¢, indicating a coin flip. By Nov 1, 2026, the probability rises to 53¢ (KXGPT-OPEN-26NOV01). Meanwhile, OpenAI's Astra release is heavily favored at 83¢ for a Sep 18, 2026 deadline (KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18) and 83% for Oct 1 (KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT01). Anthropic's Mythos model release before Nov 1, 2026 (KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV0) is a long-shot at 9¢, with a 15¢ probability by Jan 1, 2027. Google's Gemini 4 release before Oct 1, 2026 is at 24¢ (KXGEMINI-GEM4-26OCT0). The best AI on Dec 31, 2026 market (KXLLM1-26DEC31-A) gives Anthropic's future model a 70¢ lead over OpenAI at 14¢. Waymo ride-hailing expansion (KXWAYMOCITY-26DEC-DE) at 97¢ shows strong conviction in autonomous vehicle deployment. These markets suggest traders expect rapid iteration but with varied confidence across companies.
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