AI model race heats up with GPT-6 looming and high volume on 'Best AI' contracts

The AI-tech sector is buzzing, driven by anticipation around OpenAI's next major model release and an intensely competitive race for the title of 'best AI.' The market is pricing a 99¢ probability that OpenAI will release GPT-6 before Sep 16, 2026 (KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP16), signaling high confidence in a near-term launch. However, this does not guarantee dominance. The most heavily traded AI market, 'Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?' (KXLLM1), shows a different picture: Anthropic is the leader at 61¢, far ahead of OpenAI at 22¢, with Google at 6¢. This 120,877-contract market is the primary arena for traders to express their views on which company will lead the AI frontier by year-end. Adding to the excitement, the 'AI Spike' market (KXAISPIKE) at 64¢ indicates a strong belief that a model will soon reach a significant benchmark score of 1520. Other active areas include markets on AI coding models (KXCODEAI), AGI announcements (KXAGICO), and the release of AI-generated series (KXAISTREAMSERIES). This flurry of activity suggests traders are treating AI development as a major, multi-faceted theme. The divergence between the GPT-6 launch probability and the 'Best AI' market is particularly interesting, as it implies that even if OpenAI ships first, the market believes other players like Anthropic could leapfrog them by year-end.