What will any NVIDIA representative say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
AI / Artificial Intelligence
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Rubin / Vera Rubin
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$297
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 5, 2026
59 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Robot / Robotic / Robotics
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-ROBO
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: AI / Artificial Intelligence
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-AI
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Self-driving / Autonomous
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-SDRI
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Blackwell
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-BLAC
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Rubin / Vera Rubin
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-RUBI
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Physical AI
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-PHYS
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Open Source
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-OPENS
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: OpenAI / ChatGPT
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-OPEN
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Omniverse
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-OMNI
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Iran / Middle East
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-IRAN
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Hyperscaler
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-HYPE
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Humanoid
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-HUMA
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Hermes
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-HERM
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Gaming
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-GAMI
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Europe / European
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-EURO
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Data Center
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-DATA
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Cosmos
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-COSM
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: China / Chinese
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-CHIN
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Automate / Automated / Automation
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-AUTO
What will Jensen Huang say during GTC Berlin 2026 Keynote?: Anthropic / Claude
KXNVDAMENTION-26OCT21-ANTH
Analysis
This market predicts whether NVIDIA representatives will mention China or Chinese topics during the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026. The 61% probability on China/Chinese as the leading outcome reflects trader expectations about discussion priorities at this technology-focused event. The market is driven by baseline assumptions about NVIDIA's operational exposure to China-related geopolitical issues, export controls, and competitive dynamics, weighed against the conference's typical focus on data centers, hyperscalers, and AI applications. The resolution will be determined by statements made during the actual conference presentations and Q&A sessions, likely occurring in mid-September 2026. Secondary outcomes like Anthropic/Claude discussion (56%) show close competition, suggesting uncertainty about which topics will dominate NVIDIA's messaging. The relatively low contract prices on specific alternative topics (Rubin at 6¢, Data Center at 4¢) indicate lower probability on narrower discussion angles.
- ›NVIDIA's historical tendency to discuss China, tariffs, or geopolitical supply-chain constraints at investor conferences versus technology-focused product announcements
- ›Whether China-related regulatory or competitive developments occur between now and the conference that would prompt spontaneous NVIDIA commentary
- ›The conference agenda structure and NVIDIA speaker assignment—whether representatives discuss broad business strategy (more likely to mention China) or specific technical/product topics (less likely)
- ›Comparative newsworthiness of competing topics: Anthropic/Claude at 56% suggests market expects either enterprise AI partnerships or foundation model discussions to be prominent
- ›The definition of what constitutes a "mention"—casual reference versus substantive discussion—which may affect how statements are interpreted post-event
What moved the line
- Sep 4OpenAI / ChatGPT↑76pp3→79¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Open Source↑67pp8→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Rubin / Vera Rubin↑61pp31→92¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6Data Center↑44pp31→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 6Humanoid↑42pp18→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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