AI model wars: Anthropic’s Claude surges as Google release nears
Anthropic’s probability of being the best AI model by year‑end jumped 8¢ to 66¢ after a new benchmark outperformed GPT‑4. Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 16 is priced at 76¢, suggesting an imminent launch.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: Claude
65¢Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
17¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Anthropic’s probability of being the best AI model by year‑end jumped 8¢ to 66¢ after a new benchmark outperformed GPT‑4.
- 02
Meanwhile, Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 16 is priced at 76¢, suggesting an imminent launch.
- 03
The KXLLM1-26DEC31-A contract (best AI on Dec 31, 2026) has been volatile.
Full analysis
The KXLLM1-26DEC31-A contract (best AI on Dec 31, 2026) has been volatile. Today it added 8¢ to reach 66¢, surpassing the combined probability of OpenAI (13¢) and Meta (3¢). The catalyst: Anthropic’s “Mythos” model (KXCLAUDE-MYTH) scored 0.5% higher on the MATH benchmark than GPT‑6 preview. This immediately flowed into the year‑end ranking market.
Simultaneously, KXGEMINI-GEMI35P-26A (Gemini 3.5 Pro release before Aug 16) sits at 76¢ with a 1¢ spread and 6,436 volume, indicating strong conviction. If Google releases on schedule, it could disrupt the current leaderboard. The AI compute markets also reacted: KXH200WS (H200 price above $4 on Aug 7) is at 95¢, suggesting that AI hardware demand remains high regardless of which software wins.
Traders should watch KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01 (GPT‑6 release before Sep 1, 19¢) and KXAIPAUSE (68¢ that no major AI company will pause research before 2027). The interplay between model releases and compute costs could create arbitrage opportunities: for example, if Gemini is delayed, H200 prices might soften.
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