Anthropic Extends AI Model Dominance Lead Over OpenAI in Prediction Markets

AI model quality prediction markets continued their one-sided repricing today in favor of Anthropic over OpenAI. The Polymarket contract 'Which company has the best AI model end of April?: Anthropic' (0x6ac0f239c53763cc90) rose +2¢ to 90¢ on $143,580 in volume, while 'Which company has the best AI model end of April?: OpenAI' (0xf105ea1a8360554061) dropped -2¢ to 10¢ on $158,116 in volume. With less than a week left in April, these contracts are approaching settlement — meaning traders who believe OpenAI will release a major model upgrade by April 30 have a 10¢ entry point with massive upside. The Kalshi 'Best AI in May 2026' (KXLLM1-26MAY02-ANTH) contract already prices Anthropic at 94¢ for next month as well. The June 2026 'Best AI' long-dated contract on Kalshi (KXLLM1-26DEC31-A) shows Anthropic at 53¢, meaning traders do expect competition to emerge over the summer but Claude maintains an edge. DeepSeek sits at 0¢ across all timeframes. Google is at 0¢ for April, 37¢ for June long-dated according to Polymarket's 'best AI model end of June.' The math AI model quality markets (0xff16b6bcd389f460c1) show OpenAI leading at 65¢ for math specifically — a nuanced split where Claude leads overall but OpenAI retains an edge in mathematical reasoning. The coding AI market on Kalshi (KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE) shows the top coding AI at 97¢ in one bracket. Traders looking for an asymmetric trade should consider the OpenAI 10¢ contract if any major model drop is imminent.