Anthropic Crushes OpenAI in Best AI Model Race — Market at 96¢
Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 96% probability of having the top-ranked AI model in June 2026, far ahead of OpenAI (2%). This reflects strong anticipation for the Mythos model release.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
10¢Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jun 30, 2026?: Before Jun 30, 2026
10¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 96% probability of having the top-ranked AI model in June 2026, far ahead of OpenAI (2%).
- 02
This reflects strong anticipation for the Mythos model release.
- 03
The race for AI supremacy in mid-2026 is essentially over according to prediction markets.
Full analysis
The race for AI supremacy in mid-2026 is essentially over according to prediction markets. The contract 'Best AI in Jun 2026' (ticker: KXLLM1-26JUN30-A) on Kalshi is trading at 96¢ for Anthropic, implying a near-certain victory. OpenAI, the previous frontrunner, has fallen to just 2¢, while Google is at 3¢ and xAI at 2¢.
This dramatic shift is driven by market expectations for Anthropic's upcoming 'Mythos' model. Related contracts show that traders believe Mythos will be released before November 2026 (KXCLAUDE-MYTH-26NOV01 at 10¢) with growing confidence in earlier release dates.
For traders, this signals that Anthropic's technology is perceived as having a significant lead. The release of GPT-5.6 (ticker: KXGPT-OPENB-26JUN30 at 44¢) or GPT-6 (KXGPT-OPEN-26AUG01 at 9¢) could still shift expectations. The coding model market (KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC) is more fragmented, with Anthropic at 57¢ and others trailing.
Key contract to watch: KXLLM1-26JUN30-A at 96¢. Any news about Mythos demo or release could drive a sharp re-pricing.
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