Byron Donalds Heavy Favorite to Win Florida GOP Gubernatorial Primary
Florida gubernatorial primary markets show Byron Donalds at 99% probability on massive volume, while James Fishback remains a long shot. The primary is effectively a formality, but general election positioning is still fluid.
Key takeaways
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Florida gubernatorial primary markets show Byron Donalds at 99% probability on massive volume, while James Fishback remains a long shot.
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The primary is effectively a formality, but general election positioning is still fluid.
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The 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary is dominating election betting.
Full analysis
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial primary is dominating election betting. Byron Donalds (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD) has surged to 99¢, a near-certain victory, while James Fishback (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS) is at 1¢. The volume on this race alone exceeds 3 million contracts, making it the most traded election market. The Republican nomination is essentially decided, but the general election matchup against a yet-to-be-determined Democrat (likely Angie Nixon, KXGOVFLNOMD-26-ANIX at 0¢) will be the next catalyst. Traders should watch for any late entrants or shifts in the Democratic primary, as the control of Florida's governorship is a key midterm battleground.
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