Will CDU receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
+9pp
17h ago
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Top contract
92¢
$0 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will AfD receive at least
Will AfD receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 30%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-30
Will AfD receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 50%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-50
Will AfD receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 48%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-48
Will AfD receive at least 46% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 46%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-46
Will AfD receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 44%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-44
Will AfD receive at least 42% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 42%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-42
Will AfD receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 40%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-40
Will AfD receive at least 38% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 38%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-38
Will AfD receive at least 35% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 35%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06AFD-35
Cluster 2
Will BSW receive at least
Will BSW receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 2%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-2
Will BSW receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 8%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-8
Will BSW receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 6%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-6
Will BSW receive at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 5%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-5
Will BSW receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 4%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-4
Will BSW receive at least 3% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 3%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06BSW-3
Cluster 3
Will CDU receive at least
Will CDU receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 15%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06CDU-15
Will CDU receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 24%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06CDU-24
Will CDU receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 22%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06CDU-22
Will CDU receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 20%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06CDU-20
Will CDU receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: At least 18%
KXVOTESAXANH-26SEP06CDU-18
Analysis
This represents the probability that Germany's CDU party will capture at least 20% of votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election scheduled for September 2026. The current 42% probability reflects uncertainty about whether the CDU can maintain its traditional base in the state while competing against the rising AfD, which markets currently project at higher vote shares. The CDU's result depends on voter turnout patterns, coalition negotiations between mainstream parties, and whether anti-AfD strategic voting consolidates around the CDU or splinters across multiple parties. The election itself in September 2026 will definitively resolve this contract. Recent polling trends, campaign momentum in Saxony-Anhalt, and shifts in east German political dynamics would all shift this probability meaningfully before voting occurs.
- ›Current polling data for Saxony-Anhalt shows AfD projected significantly higher than CDU, suggesting market skepticism about CDU reaching 20%
- ›The related contract pricing CDU at 22%+ shows 55¢ probability, implying roughly 45% chance of CDU falling between 20-22%
- ›AfD contracts across multiple thresholds show high confidence in their dominance (91¢ for 30%+), which inversely constrains CDU's likely vote share
- ›Saxony-Anhalt has shown stronger AfD support than national averages in recent years, pressuring traditional center-right performance in the state
- ›The election resolves definitively in September 2026, making recent polling and regional trend data the primary observable inputs
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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