Election 2026: Battle for Congress Takes Shape
Control of the House and Senate is the dominant election theme. Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House (85¢), while the Senate is a true toss-up. Key primaries, especially in Wisconsin, are generating enormous volume.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
84¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
53¢Will Democratic win the House race for TX-15?: Bobby Pulido
53¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Control of the House and Senate is the dominant election theme.
- 02
Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House (85¢), while the Senate is a true toss-up.
- 03
Key primaries, especially in Wisconsin, are generating enormous volume.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm elections are generating massive engagement, with the highest volume occurring in gubernatorial primaries. The Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary is a proxy war for progressive vs. establishment factions. The market **KXGOVWINOMD-26-DCRO** (David Crowley at 89¢) has over 4.5 million in volume and a 1¢ spread, making it the most liquid market in the entire dataset.
Control of the House is a clear bet. The contract **CONTROLH-2026-D** ("Will Democrats win the House in 2026?") trades at **85¢**, indicating a strong market conviction that Democrats will flip the chamber. Conversely, the Senate is a coin flip. **CONTROLS-2026-D** ("Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?") trades at **48¢**, while **CONTROLS-2026-R** ("Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?") is at **50¢**, making it a true toss-up with significant profit potential for directional traders.
Traders should watch the combo market **KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-**, which shows a Democratic sweep (House + Senate) at 47¢ and a Republican sweep at 14¢. The most likely scenario per the market (39¢) is a divided government with a Democratic House and Republican Senate. Key Senate races underpinning these odds include **SENATETX-26** (Republican 48¢), **SENATEMI-26** (Democrat 56¢), and **HOUSETX15-26** (Democrat 62¢).
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sf query "2026 house control democratic"