Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $17M in cash on hand at the end of Q3
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 45% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
45%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 21, 2026
44 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $” vs “Will the Democratic”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $115M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $115M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A115000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $205M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $205M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A205000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $195M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $195M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A195000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $185M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $185M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A185000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $175M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $175M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A175000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $165M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $165M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A165000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $155M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $155M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A155000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $145M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $145M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A145000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $135M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $135M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A135000000
Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $125M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $125M
KXFUNDRAISING-CLFQ326-A125000000
Cluster 2
Will the Democratic
Will the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee report more than $20M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $20M
KXFUNDRAISING-DSCCQ326-A20000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $60M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $60M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A60000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $55M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $55M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A55000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $50M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $50M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A50000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $45M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $45M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A45000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $40M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $40M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A40000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $35M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A35000000
Will the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee report more than $30M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $30M
KXFUNDRAISING-DCCCQ326-A30000000
Cluster 3
Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $1
Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $11M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $11M
KXFUNDRAISING-DNCQ326-A11000000
Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $14M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $14M
KXFUNDRAISING-DNCQ326-A14000000
Analysis
This contract asks whether the Democratic National Committee will report more than $17 million in cash on hand at the end of Q3 2026. The 53% probability reflects near-equal odds either way. The outcome depends primarily on fundraising performance during the summer months and spending on campaign operations, advertising, and administrative costs. Committee cash positions fluctuate significantly based on election-cycle timing and donor activity. The key catalyst will be the official Q3 financial disclosure filing, typically due in mid-October, which will provide definitive cash-on-hand figures. Interpreting the probability requires understanding that the DNC's cash position serves as an indicator of organizational financial health and campaign readiness heading into the final stretch before November elections.
- ›The DNC reported specific cash-on-hand figures in prior quarters that establish a baseline for assessing whether $17M represents a realistic or stretched threshold
- ›Summer 2026 fundraising performance relative to typical cycle patterns will directly affect available cash by end of Q3
- ›Campaign spending commitments already announced or expected during Q3 will reduce cash reserves
- ›The spread of related contracts (93¢ at $8M, 76¢ at $14M, 54¢ at $17M, 51¢ at $20M) suggests market uncertainty concentrated around the $14-20M range
- ›October mid-month financial disclosure filing will provide the definitive resolution with no room for interpretation
What moved the line
- Sep 4Above $11M↑56pp26→82¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above $40M↓27pp61→34¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above $40M↑26pp34→60¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above $14M↓26pp76→50¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above $14M↑25pp50→75¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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