Florida Governor Primary Narrows as Byron Donalds Consolidates Lead
Byron Donalds' probability to win the Republican nomination surged to 97¢ on 605k volume, while James Fishback dropped to 2¢. Jay Collins and other candidates are negligible. The race is effectively over, but markets on margin of victory remain active.
Cross-market probability snapshot
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Key takeaways
- 01
Byron Donalds' probability to win the Republican nomination surged to 97¢ on 605k volume, while James Fishback dropped to 2¢.
- 02
Jay Collins and other candidates are negligible.
- 03
The race is effectively over, but markets on margin of victory remain active.
Full analysis
The Florida Republican gubernatorial primary is now a one-man race. Byron Donalds (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD) commands 97¢ with over 600k volume, leaving James Fishback (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JFIS) at 2¢ and Jay Collins (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-JCOL) at 1¢. The market for Donalds receiving at least 60% of the primary vote (KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLN) trades at 42¢ with 6,782 volume. Nationally, control of the Senate is a toss-up: Democrats at 49¢ (CONTROLS-2026-D) vs Republicans at 50¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R) with tight spreads. House control favors Democrats at 85¢ (CONTROLH-2026-D). Traders should watch Senate races in Texas (SENATETX-26-R at 48¢, D at 51¢) and Michigan (SENATEMI-26-R 43¢, D 57¢) for signs of momentum shifts.
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