Democrats Favored for House in 2026, But Senate Battle Tight
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up. Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
80¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
57¢Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
23¢Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Byron Donalds
94¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The 2026 midterm markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House, while the Senate remains a toss-up.
- 02
Primary season is heating up with key races in California, Florida, and Texas driving volume.
- 03
The 2026 elections are the next major political event, and the prediction markets are heavily engaged.
Full analysis
The 2026 elections are the next major political event, and the prediction markets are heavily engaged. The CONTROLH-2026-D market prices a Democratic House win at 80¢, reflecting strong confidence in their ability to flip the chamber. However, the CONTROLS-2026-R market shows a 57¢ probability for a Republican Senate, indicating a split congress is the base case. This split has significant implications for fiscal policy, government spending, and debt ceiling negotiations. The primary markets are also active, with KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26 showing Xavier Becerra as a heavy favorite to finish first in the California Governor primary at 99¢. The KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD market prices Byron Donalds as the near-certain Republican nominee for Florida Governor at 94¢. The 2028 Democratic presidential primary is also trading, with KXPRESNOMD-28-GN showing Gavin Newsom at 23¢, leading the field. These markets are driven by polling, fundraising, and endorsements, making them sensitive to political news cycles.
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