Democrats Favored to Retake House in 2026 Midterms
CONTROLH-2026-D trades at 80¢ with strong volume, signaling market confidence in a Democratic House majority. Key Senate races in Texas, Iowa, and Maine are also drawing attention.
Key takeaways
- 01
CONTROLH-2026-D trades at 80¢ with strong volume, signaling market confidence in a Democratic House majority.
- 02
Key Senate races in Texas, Iowa, and Maine are also drawing attention.
- 03
The 2026 midterm election markets are heating up.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election markets are heating up. The most liquid contract, CONTROLH-2026-D, shows Democrats at 80¢ to win the House, while Republicans are at 19¢ (CONTROLH-2026-R). Total volume on these two contracts exceeds 67k. In the Senate, Democrats are favored to hold seats in Colorado (KXSENATECOD-26-JHIC at 91¢) and Michigan (KXSENATEMID-26-AELS at 82¢), while Republicans are favored in Texas (SENATETX-26-R at 59¢) and Iowa (SENATEIA-26-R at 58¢). The Florida Senate race is a toss-up (SENATEFLS-26-D at 18¢). The balance of power combo markets show Republicans controlling both chambers is 21¢ (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO). Primary markets are active too: Colorado Governor primary shows Phil Weiser leading (KXGOVCONOMD-26-PWEI at 75¢), Florida Governor primary has Byron Donalds at 94¢ (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD). These markets offer opportunities to trade on individual races as polling and fundraising data emerges. The House control contract is the most liquid with a 1¢ spread.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf query "2026 house control"