Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?: Republican Party
10¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Texas?: James Talarico
58¢Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Texas: Gina Hinojosa
22¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority.
- 02
Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
- 03
2026 election markets are active and directionally clear.
Full analysis
2026 election markets are active and directionally clear. The House control contract (CONTROLH-2026-R at 10¢, D at 89¢) is the highest-liquidity election market today with 539k volume. Traders are effectively pricing a Democratic takeover of the House, with the threshold for a 'wave' watch at 76¢ for a Democratic margin in the Georgia governor's race. The most interesting divergence is Texas: the Senate race (SENATETX-26-D at 57¢) is a true coin-flip, while the House race in FL-25 is a 72¢ Democratic favorite. New Hampshire's Senate race (SENATENH-26-D at 83¢) is a safe seat. For traders, the key risk is a late Republican surge, which would show up as CONTROLH-2026-R moving above 15¢. Watch KXHOUSEWINSTATE (the exact-number House seat market) for granularity, as it's trading at 20¢ for exactly 8 Democratic gains.
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